A Mexican Perspective: The Three Options for Venezuela

“I know several Latin American brothers and sisters who have fled their country. Some were born in the era of Chavismo and have not known anything new, until now.”

I cannot recall the last time Venezuela was a democracy. I remember in 2013 hope sparked all across Latin America; Hugo Chávez was dead, and his regime could die with him. Now, six years later, Venezuelans are facing the worst refugee crisis in history, accompanied by power cuts, medicine shortages, and are on the brink of starvation. A week ago, opposition leaders Juan Guaidó—who was also defeated by Nicolás Maduro in the latest presidential elections—and Leopoldo López, took the capital’s streets. Their uprising was qualified as a failed coup d’état against Maduro.

As I see it, there are three possible lines of action in Venezuela’s future: a coup d’etat by Juan Guaidó, risking American intervention; waiting Maduro out, risking a bigger crisis; or opting for Mexico’s suggestion to engage in international dialogue.

1. An American-funded coup

Juan Guaido’s appearance was unexpected, almost as if someone knew exactly what he had to do and when he had to do it. He shook Venezuela as a rising figure against President Maduro; he managed to conceal power until being recognized as the legitimate ruler of the country by over 40 nations. Some argue that he is the new American puppet in Latin America whose possibility of a successful coup can only happen with the help of the United States’ most powerful leaders.

Vice President Mike Pence has expressed his support—and for that matter, the U.S.’s support—for Guaidó. Other American leaders joined him, including John Bolton. Bolton has tweeted a number of times that “Maduro must go” whatever it takes, while he worries not only about a socialist dictatorship but the intervention of Russia or Cuba. But wait, wait, wait… the U.S. is against foreign intervention in Venezuela but is willing to intervene? Accompanying Bolton’s declarations, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has made it clear that the United States is likely to intervene if Guaidó is not recognized as the legitimate president of Venezuela. I am unable to believe that any of the declarations made by either President Trump, Secretary Pompeo, Mr. Bolton or Vice President Pence come without a perverse interest behind them.