Are Hispanics White? The Answer Has Sweeping Political Implications

“For those of us nerdy enough to frequent the annals of the U.S. Census, it was a jarring thing to hear that Puerto Rico is 70 percent white, according to its own inhabitants!”

In June of this year, the Census came out with a report showing the non-Hispanic, white-alone population to have declined by one fifth of a percent in absolute terms during the last year while every other racial group grew. This factoid has immense significance for those on opposing sides of the culture wars, both of which have taken it to herald the decline of white political significance and the rise of a diverse, and presumably more liberal, electorate.

According to the Brookings Institution, the first such sub-generation is already here, dubbed generation “Z-plus” and consisting of newborns through nine-year-olds.

But before we commit ourselves to the vision of a wildly more diverse America—and the progressive utopia it allegedly promises—there are two peculiarities that need to be addressed: The first is that there are serious discrepancies between the official and social definitions of whiteness, and both are flexible in the long-term. The second is that this demographic shift is being driven by Hispanics, officially an ethnic, not racial, group, more than half of which is officially white.

In that light, I have a prediction: Over the coming decades, we’ll see the social definition of whiteness catch up to the official, government version. As it does, Hispanics, particularly those of European descent, will come to think of themselves as conventional whites—and perhaps change their politics accordingly. In short, Hispanic-Americans will follow the arc of many immigrant groups, moving from the periphery to the cultural mainstream and learning to identify as in—rather than out—members of society.