Taiwan and World War III

“The question of Taiwan is never far from the Chinese President’s thoughts, and nor should it be far from ours. The fortunes of the world rest on that island. No conflict in Eastern Europe or the Middle East is as likely to spiral into a global war.”

Five years before his famous 1972 overture to Maoist China, President Richard Nixon warned that “Asia, not Europe or Latin America, will pose the greatest danger of a confrontation which could escalate into World War III.” Nixon placed the peril in “the final third of the twentieth century,” but his counsel is more relevant in this third decade of the 21st century. Why? Because the world is now home to a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) with the military strength successfully to invade Taiwan, and—equally important—a growing dread of imminent decline: enough, perhaps, to push a nervous dictator to make his move while he still can.

Over recent weeks, China’s economic slowdown has prompted President Xi Jinping to embark on a charm offensive, meeting with various world leaders to present a less belligerent face and assure the world that China remains open for business. But there is no sign of any change in President Xi’s obsession with conquering the coveted island. Indeed, at their recent meeting in San Francisco, President Xi tried to persuade President Joseph Biden to depart from the long-held American position of “strategic ambiguity.” He wanted the United States openly to oppose Taiwanese independence.

President Xi did assure his counterpart that American reports of a planned invasion in 2027 or 2035 are false, but, lest we forget, this is the same man who once assured President Barack Obama that Beijing would never militarize the South China Sea, after which he proceeded to do exactly that. The question of Taiwan is never far from the Chinese President’s thoughts, and nor should it be far from ours. The fortunes of the world rest on that island. No conflict in Eastern Europe or the Middle East is as likely to spiral into a global war.