Pandemic Pandemonium: Has America Gotten It Wrong?

“Since a vaccine is years away, natural herd immunity is the only remaining feasible route. But current governmental actions are directly preventing the development of widespread immunity, thus guaranteeing the prolongation of the pandemic.”

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the leading expert in the federal government’s COVID-19 pandemic response, recently declared that he does not understand why all states in the United States have not imposed lockdown orders. A point-by-point analysis reveals why that approach may be a key mistake in an errant response to the coronavirus outbreak. The United States’ pandemic plan—like that of most of the world—has been counterintuitively counterproductive.

In the long run, it would be rational and correct for everyone to cower at home if (a) we could protect the population by doing so, and if (b) COVID-19 would disappear by the time people stepped out again. In the short term, it makes sense to have a population shelter-at-home if and only if an area’s healthcare system would otherwise be overwhelmed.

What are the facts? Yes, anyone sheltering at home and not interacting with other humans is obviously very unlikely to either acquire or spread the COVID-19 infection. But no one—not a single expert anywhere—believes the SARS-CoV-2 virus will disappear. This pathogen has the particular characteristics that make its outbreak unstoppable: Symptoms are not immediately evident and often mild at first, and it is easily spread by both symptomatic and asymptomatic infectees. It’s too late to quarantine this virus into submission. It’s in the wild now, and it will—in all likelihood—eventually infect most humans on the planet who interact in society, much like measles and influenza before it. This will not all happen with the current wave, but , ultimately, it’s inevitable.