A “November Surprise”? History Shows That’s Possible

“The following examples remind us that no presidential race is over until the votes are counted.”

In the era of the Trump news cycle, October seems far too distant from Election Day to be considered the eleventh hour. Plenty of attention has been given to last-minute game changers in American presidential contests. These moments, coined “October Surprises” in 1980 by William Casey—Ronald Reagan’s campaign manager—have occurred so widely (and so often) that they are now almost expected.

What is far less common is a “November surprise.” And because of the limited time between such news breaking and Election Day itself, November surprises—in order to have an impact on voting—have universally occurred in the era of mass media, particularly that of the 24-hour televised news cycle. The following examples remind us that no presidential race is over until the votes are counted.

November 2, 1968: Nixon Sabotages Vietnam Peace Talks

The 1968 Presidential Election was one of the most unique in American history and deserves to be put in brief context. It was a critical year in American history. The Vietnam War escalated with the Tet Offensive; President Lyndon B. Johnson did not seek reelection; both Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert F. Kennedy were assassinated; anti-war protests and race riots erupted throughout the nation; and the presidential election was a contest of three candidates: Democratic Vice President Hubert Humphrey, Republican former Vice President Richard Nixon, and Independent Governor of Alabama George Wallace.

The presidential contest took center stage in the weeks leading up to the election. Early October saw a boost for Democrats when Governor Wallace’s campaign collapsed. Many previous supporters of Governor Wallace then moved to bolster Vice President Humphrey’s candidacy, helping to narrow the wide lead that Vice President Nixon had enjoyed for most of the race. Meanwhile, the outgoing Johnson administration was pushing for de-escalation in Vietnam at the Paris Peace Talks. This was sound politics too, given the war’s increasing unpopularity in the United States. The ability to announce peace in Vietnam, Democratic leadership believed, would secure President Johnson’s legacy and win the anti-war vote, paving a clear path to a victory for Vice President Humphrey.